December 20, 2023 Longchang Chemical

Review 2023 bisphenol A market, the first half of the domestic bisphenol A market can not escape the spell continued to hover in the low, June 15 fell to a five-year low of 8712 yuan / ton, the third quarter finally ushered in the market high moments, a rapid surge to the year’s high of 12,062 yuan / ton on September 16, but the demand is difficult to support the high market prices, the fourth quarter of the bisphenol A ushered in another plunge in the trend.

 

According to the business community commodity market analysis system, on October 1, the mainstream market of bisphenol A reported at 11,450 yuan / ton, December 19, reported at 9,612 yuan / ton, down 16.05%. This round of bisphenol A continued to fall the main factors, first, more restarted devices, and new devices put into production, the supply side is sufficient; second, demand continues to be low.

 

The market fell the most in October, and factories suffered serious losses. The domestic market price fell from RMB 11,450/tonne to RMB 10,062/tonne, down 12.12%. First, the double raw material phenol/acetone fell significantly in October, bisphenol A lost the cost side support for a time, wide downward; second, the supply side is relatively stable in the case of low demand, terminal factories to consume inventory and contract-based, real single traders to make a larger intention to ship, the market is worsening. bisphenol A in October rapid downward trend, the factory side of the loss is serious, as of the end of the month, the bisphenol A factory loss of nearly $1000/tonne Bisphenol A is a new type of bisphenol.

Supply side tightened in November, the market low shock. Into November, the domestic Zhejiang Petrochemical II 240,000 tons / year, Yanhua polycarbonate 150,000 tons / year two major bisphenol A device synchronized parking, followed by Cangzhou Dahua 200,000 tons / year and Guangxi Huayi 200,000 tons / year bisphenol A device parking, a time of the domestic production capacity of the opening rate of up to 60%, the second half of the double raw materials ushered in a small upward movement, the cost side of the support, the producers are pressured by the state of the loss of shipments under the intention of the weaker, but the end demand slump, the market is low and shaky. Terminal demand slump, market sentiment at the bottom of the fluctuations after a small push up.

December supply is expected to increase, the market is again under pressure to explore the bottom. November device maintenance and unplanned stopping more devices, December gradually recovered, including Zhejiang Petrochemicals, a 240,000 tons / year device restarted, Sinopec Mitsui 120,000 tons / year device restart restoration restart, the supply side is loose. The recent bisphenol A factory delivery contract is mainly, the market spot trading is flat, as of now the bisphenol A market negotiation price to 9600-9700 yuan / ton. Demand side, the two major downstream product demand is weak, insufficient transactions, the market is weak shock. Epoxy resin market is running weak, the overall work rate is less than 50%, enterprises are mainly bearish on the market, East China liquid epoxy resin market offer at 13000-13400 yuan / ton net water ex-factory, Huangshan solid epoxy resin market negotiation price of 13000-13400 yuan / ton cash delivery. pc market is weak and shocking, East China injection molding grade in the mainstream of high-end material negotiation in the 15650 yuan / ton, Zhejiang Petrochemical PC a plant is scheduled to be re-used, the PC plant is scheduled to be re-used in the first phase, the market is weak. The PC market is weak and shaky, East China injection molding grade high-end material mainstream negotiation in 15,650 yuan / ton.

 

More than a month before the Spring Festival, bisphenol A market supply and demand and the cost side is still more changes, but in the face of this year’s downturn in the market, the end of the upstream and downstream light intention is greater, is still more negative than positive, the market is not optimistic.

Advantageous: supply side, South Asia Plastics 150,000 tons / year device stopped for maintenance. Cost side, the current trend of phenol and acetone, around the market situation in the 200-300 yuan / ton fluctuation probability, including phenol and acetone market changes in the near future by the port inventories, plant maintenance and industry quotes have a greater impact on the current market price of phenol market in East China at 7750-7850 yuan / ton, acetone East China’s mainstream negotiating price of 6800 yuan / ton, the average cost of BPA in 10000-1050000 yuan / ton, and the average cost of BPA in 10,000-10,500 yuan / ton, the market is still more favorable than optimistic. The average cost of bisphenol A is fluctuating at RMB 10,000-10,500/ton, which is limited in the short term.

Short: supply side, more new installations in December, the market is expected to increase supply, Long Jiang Chemical 200,000 tons / year device in the commissioning, South Asia Plastics Phase II 170,000 tons / year device is gradually stabilized, Hengli Petrochemical 240,000 tons / year and Qingdao Bay, the new device to focus on the production. Demand side, the two major downstream products epoxy resin and PC start between 5-6%, and the current epoxy resin industry is still in the loss line, the industry is also suppressed, is expected to 2024 January start rate is difficult to have greater fluctuations.

Toward the end of the year, the chemical industry index is still in the low shock, the market news lack of good, the current bisphenol A market in the supply side of the increase in production capacity is gradually released, the traders have a weak mentality, it is expected that the bisphenol A short-term continue to bottom out, such as the cost side of the support, the bisphenol A or to maintain the low hovering, taking into account the lack of good for the two major downstream, the probability of bisphenol A fluctuations in a low level to the end of the year.

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